Looking at the Red Sox Draft Strategy

The Red Sox hold the 7th pick in tonight’s MLB draft, which marks the second time in 3 years the Red Sox will pick at that spot. In 2013, the Red Sox selected pitcher Trey Ball, a 6’6″ lefty from Indiana, who has had his struggled in his minor league career so far (4.67 ERA in 67 starts since being drafted). He’s only 20 years old, so he’s still got time to turn things around.

But, if recent history is any guide, 7 could still be a lucky number. Here are a few of the Red Soxnames to be taken 7th in recent years: Clayton Kershaw, Troy Tulowitski and Matt Harvey. So, where should the Red Sox focus be in the draft tonight? On picking the best player available. Why? The Red Sox have so many holes right now, it’s hard to pinpoint one area of need at the moment. Every facet of the game has struggled this year at different points, so it’s hard to say they should focus on offense or pitching over the other.

2 names being thrown around are 2 former Red Sox picks from the 2012 draft, shortstop Alex Bregman and pitcher Carson Fulmer. Both of these guys are projected top 10 picks this year, and both could be on the board for the Red Sox. Bregman is batting .312 with a .406 on base percentage and .534 slugging percentage at Louisiana State University, per Masslive.com. He also has 22 doubles, 3 triples, 9 home runs, and 37 steals in 47 tries this season. Once he gets to the Major League level, he could be a big impact player. So could Fulmer, though – he has a 13-2 record with a 1.82 ERA, 152 strikeouts and only 46 walks in 114.0 innings per MassLive.

Granted, neither  would make an immediate impact at the Major League level, but I would be happy with the Red Sox picking either guy. The Red Sox could pick an outfielder (Arkansas outfielder Andrew Benitendi could be available), which is the one area the Red Sox have some depth, at least when everyone is healthy. That has been a problem so far, with Shane Victorino and Daniel Nava both injured right now. Who knows what the Red Sox do, with so many areas to address, but it seems pretty hard for them to go wrong on paper. The draft kicks off tonight at 7 pm.

The Red Sox and Jon Lester: What’s the Deal?

Jon Lester

On the eve of Spring Training, Jon Lester, the Sox best starter and post-season hero, announced that he’d like to stay with the Red Sox when his current contract expires at the end of the 2014 season. Surprisingly and happily (for the Red Sox) he said he’d even take a hometown discount to stay.

So, how did the Sox react? “Refreshing,” they opined. That’s it?

It’s been almost a month since Lester spoke out publicly and it’s less than two weeks before Opening Day. Lester will be on the hill for the Red Sox by the way. And not a single word in the mainstream media on any contract negotiations. Why not? This is either being kept a secret on a scale of the Invasion of Normandy or the Sox are guilty of malfeasance by not trying to re-sign Lester for the long-term—and soon—particularly, after his stated desire to be a life-long Red Sox

The argument for keeping Lester on his pitching merits is almost ironclad. Consider: He’s just 30 years old and he’s never even had a hint of arm trouble. In 5 of the last 6 years (the hideous Bobby Valentine 2012 excluded), Lester has had a minimum of 15 wins and averaged 205 innings pitched. Lester is also a monstrously good (great!) big game pitcher. He has 6 post season victories for the Red Sox with an ERA of 2.11 in the playoffs and World Series. And he’s done this in the most difficult environment in all of baseball—Boston, where every game is the War of the Roses.

Who else can claim the same and what would the cost be?

I am not saying that Lester should get Clayton Kershaw money (7 years, $25 million) but when the comparatively mediocre Homer Bailey was recently resigned by the Reds at 6 years and $105M, alarm bells should have gone off on Yawkey Way. Not to mention the Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka, who just signed a 7 year, $155M deal without having pitched a single inning in the big leagues. The simple fact of the matter is that starting pitching salaries always go up. Great ones, even just good ones, are worth their weight in gold.

After the 2014 season, the Tiger’s Max Scherzer and likely David Price of the Rays will both be on the Free Agent market. Their salaries will be astronomical. Should he make it to free agency, Lester will almost certainly make a ton of money if for no reason other than the “a rising tide raises all boats” theory. And it will likely be a lot more than he’d ask the Red Sox for right now.

It’s obvious and understandable that the Sox are very optimistic about the cadre of strong-armed starting pitching potential they’ve accumulated in the minor leagues. Webster. Renaudo. Barnes. Owens.

But asking them to step in and be major league pitchers from the get-go is like whistling past the graveyard, and certainly not Jon Lester-like effective.

From my perch, if Lester has said he’s ready and willing, the Red Sox should vote with their pocketbooks—before Opening Day.